Chase Cards Getting Harder to Pull? Collectors Sound Off
What used to be a fun hunt is starting to feel like a high-stakes lottery.
Across Pokémon, Magic, sports cards, and even newer entries like Disney Lorcana, collectors are noticing a trend: pull rates for rare cards are getting worse. Grail-tier hits are harder to find, even after ripping through boxes, cases, or entire sealed displays.
So what's happening? Is this strategy or just coincidence?
🎯 What Are Pull Rates, Exactly?
Pull rates refer to the odds of getting specific types of cards—chase cards, serial-numbered hits, full-art foils, autographs, etc.—from booster packs or boxes.
Traditionally, brands gave collectors a sense of what to expect:
1 ultra rare per 12 packs
1 holo per 3 packs
1 secret rare per case
But in today’s market? These numbers are rarely published, and when they are, they’re not always accurate. What used to be a reasonable chase has become a gamble with low returns.
📉 Why Are Pull Rates Getting Worse?
There are a few likely reasons:
1. Increased production = diluted odds
As demand for TCGs skyrocketed in recent years, companies have ramped up printing. But if the number of chase cards remains fixed, odds naturally go down.
2. Manufactured scarcity
Some believe publishers intentionally make hits more elusive to drive sealed box value and fuel the resale economy. The rarer the hit, the more buzz online.
3. Influencer optics
Watching breakers pull heat live on YouTube or TikTok skews perception. But those are the lucky ones—the average collector burns through packs with far fewer hits.
4. More variations, but fewer real wins
Sets now have alternate arts, reverse foils, rainbow rares, textured cards, etc.—but more flash doesn’t mean more value. In many cases, only a tiny fraction of cards hold any resale weight.
🗣️ What the Community Is Saying
Collectors on platforms like Collectors Club and Reddit are venting:
"I opened a full case. Not one gold card."
"Pull rates are brutal. Feels like they're designed to push FOMO and resale."
"I used to hit at least one big card per booster box. Now? I just feel ripped off."
This isn't just about disappointment—it’s about the sustainability of the hobby.
🔬 What AGS Thinks About Pull Rate Declines
At AGS, we believe in transparency—whether it’s through AI-driven grading or how we look at market trends.
Lower pull rates don’t just frustrate collectors—they impact:
Card value stability
Long-term collector engagement
Confidence in sealed product investing
When expectations aren’t aligned with reality, collectors lose trust. And trust is everything in this space.
We’re grading more modern cards with lower gem rates than ever before—not just because of centering or surface issues, but because collectors are submitting more mid-tier pulls hoping for top-tier results.
🧠 How to Navigate the New Pull Rate Landscape
If you’re collecting in 2025, here’s how to protect yourself:
Set realistic expectations. Don’t chase blindly—know the odds.
Research sets before buying. Some releases are bloated with filler.
Buy singles if value matters. It’s cheaper than chasing grails in sealed packs.
Grade what counts. AGS helps you protect your best hits with transparent, consistent grading.
🧩 Final Thought: The Thrill Is Still Alive—But It’s Changing
The magic of opening packs isn’t dead. But manufacturers must be careful not to price out passion.
When the pull feels impossible, collecting turns into gambling. And when the thrill fades, so does the foundation of the hobby.
Collectors deserve better odds, more transparency, and fewer gimmicks.
Let’s bring balance back to the game.